ENTSO-E Midterm Adequacy Forecast uses sophisticated mathematical calculations to assess pan-European electricity security of supply by 2020 and 2025. The MAF is one of ENTSO-E’s legal mandates. The results of the MAF are now out for public consultation until 9 November.
The MAF looks at the complex interdependencies between supply, demand, storage, climatic conditions and interconnection capacities. It underlines the importance of cross-border cooperation in fostering adequacy throughout the interconnected pan-European power system.
In the 2018 edition, a ‘low-carbon’ scenario considers the impact of shutting down 23GW of generation units by 2025 due to an acceleration of environmental policies, for example a coal phase-out. Results confirm that the decommissioning of polluting generation capacity should be accompanied by the development of flexibility sources, i.e., demand response, storage, interconnections and also smarter integration of renewable and distributed energy sources.
The MAF is part of the wider package of the ENTSO-E 10-year network development plan which looks at a longer term horizon (2030-2040).